A standard runs test showed that the hypothesis of independence is strongly rejected for daily returns, but accepted for weekly, monthly and annual returns, whilst the results of a more sophisticated runs test showed that daily, weekly and decreasing returns are the least consistent with an efficient market.
By the time Shermer is done exposing all the flaws in our mental machinery, you feel inclined to put the efficient market hypothesis right up there with the "stork theory" in sex education.
As I said in class, all that the market efficiency hypothesis implies isthat prices should be correct signals because it has already incorporated allavailable information.
Don't let the efficient market hypothesis types persuade you that bargains don't exist in today's markets. They do. And in the weeks ahead, we'll continue to help you ferret them out.
If the total cost including computer costs plus brokerage fee and allother transaction costs is less than 2 percent, then semi-strong form marketefficiency hypothesis may be rejected.
If strong-form marketefficiency hypothesis holds, those who acquire insider information quickly acton it and force the prices to reflect the information.
What conclusion can you draw from this, and how does this informationaffect which form of the market efficiency hypothesis you might adopt?