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Every agent must sample and act on its world through a sense-select-act (or stimulus, cognition, response) cycle. The IDA/GW model hypothesizes for us humans a complex , involving perception, several memory systems, attention and action selection, that samples the world at five to ten times a second. This frequent sampling allows for an exceptionally fine grained analysis of common cognitive phenomena such as process dissociation, recognition vs. recall, and the availability heuristic. At a high level of abstraction, these analyses, which are included in the paper, support the commonly held explanations of what is generally found in studies of the explicit (i.e., conscious and reportable) components of memory processes (e.g. Tulving, 1985; Baddeley et al, 2001). Nothing new here. At a finer grained level, however, our analyses flesh out these common explanations, adding detail and functional mechanisms. Therein lies the value of our analyses.
Current techniques for studying these phenomena at a fine grained level, such as PET, fMRI, EEG, implanted electrodes, etc., are still lacking either in scope, in spatial resolution, or in temporal resolution. PET and fMRI have temporal resolution problems, EEG is well-known to have localizability difficulties, and implanted electrodes (in epileptic patients), while excellent in temporal and spatial resolution, can only sample a limited number of neurons; that is they are limited in scope. As a result, many of our hypotheses, while testable in principle, seem difficult to test at the present time. Improved recording methods are emerging rapidly in cognitive neuroscience. When GW theory was first proposed, the core hypothesis of “global activation” or “global broadcasting” was not directly testable in human subjects. Since that time, however, with the advent of brain imaging, widespread brain activation due to conscious, but not unconscious, processes has been found in dozens of studies (see Baars, 2002; Dehaene, 2001). We expect further improvements to make our current hypotheses testable as well.
To say that a hypothesis is plausible is to convey that it hasepistemic support: we have some reason to believe it, even priorto testing. An assertion of plausibility within the context of aninquiry typically has pragmatic connotations as well: to say thata hypothesis is plausible suggests that we have some reason toinvestigate it further. For example, a mathematician working on aproof regards a conjecture as plausible if it “has some chancesof success” (Polya 1954 (v. 2): 148). On both points, thereis ambiguity as to whether an assertion of plausibility is categoricalor a matter of degree. These observations point to the existenceof two distinct conceptions of plausibility, probabilistic andmodal, either of which may reflect the intended conclusion ofan analogical argument.
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The symmetry-based justification for analogical reasoning outlinedin gives us what amounts to a modal versionof Reflection: if, so far as present opinion isconcerned, I might come to accept a hypothesis, then I shouldregard that hypothesis as a serious (prima facie)possibility. A modicum of open-mindedness is required as a way ofanticipating my possible future opinion, just as required byReflection. Support from a good analogical argumentprovides sufficient justification for this type ofopen-mindedness. This position may be the common core of theideas about analogy held by Herschel, Whewell and Campbell.
How do we combine analogical reasoning with other inferentialprocesses? As a more manageable question, which is also animportant special case: how is analogical reasoningrelated to the confirmation of scientific hypotheses? Confirmation, in a broad sense, is the process by which ascientific hypothesis receives inductive support on the basis ofevidence (see and ).Confirmation may also signify the logicalrelationship of inductive support that obtains between ahypothesis H and a proposition E that expresses therelevant evidence. Can analogical arguments play a role, eitherin the process or in the logical relationship? Arguably yes (toboth), but this role has to be delineated carefully, and severalobstacles remain in the way of a clear account.
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